Pre-tournament race card and model odds are preserved below for the record.
Next season's schedule →
Pre-tournament Race Card
Monte Carlo over net-score model w/ form, weather, age cohort, social profile,
in-round drinks, clutch Z. Sourced from 50,000 simulations.
All values in strokes; lower expected score = better.
Sun May 3, 2026 · Bay Hill · 36 holes single day · Post 8:20 AM
Generated 9/23/2026, 7:00:17 PM · 50,000 sims
🎙️ Headline: Model favors TD-Tap that ass Tommy for the Cup (25.4%); Hilldoggie the chalk to advance (91.7%).
Forecast
77°F · RAIN 53% (2.4") · WIND 11 mph
Humidity & heat NOT modeled this card.
Tee Groups
08:20 G1: j-haynes · cambre · cardenas
08:30 G2: burt · martinez · gomen · hudgens
08:40 G3: dennis · hilmer · latorre · hingtgen
R2 FINALS · 14:00
🏆Win the Cup
Pp
Player
M/L
$2 pays
4
TD
3/1
$8.00
5
Hudge Bear
7/2
$9.00
3
Hilldoggie
4/1
$10.00
8
JB
6/1
$14.00
9
Cinco
20/1
$42.00
1
Buck
20/1
$42.00
10
Notorious G
25/1
$52.00
6
GOGO
30/1
$62.00
11
Haynes the Crasher
30/1
$62.00
7
Martini
30/1
$62.00
2
The Turk
30/1
$62.00
🎯Advance to Finals
Pp
Player
M/L
$2 pays
3
Hilldoggie
1/12
$2.17
1
Buck
1/12
$2.17
4
TD
2/5
$2.80
5
Hudge Bear
1/2
$3.00
8
JB
3/5
$3.20
2
The Turk
6/5
$4.40
6
GOGO
5/2
$7.00
9
Cinco
3/1
$8.00
11
Haynes the Crasher
9/2
$11.00
10
Notorious G
9/2
$11.00
7
Martini
5/1
$12.00
Age cohorts: 🧒 Young (≤45) · 💪 Prime (46–55) · 👴 Veteran (56+) · all stroke values in strokes ·
lower expected score = better
📋Projected New Finish
Rating 71.5 · Sorted by R1 net asc · Top 5 advance
Each row shows expected gross + R1/R2 net w/ ALL model factors baked in:
Bayhill avg, regression-to-mean, recent form, PHIN trend, weather (rain/wind),
age cohort, condition, party tier, Sat-night override, drinks/round,
clutch Z, F9/B9 swing, tee-order, group rain bias.
Top 5 R1 advance to R2; cut line ≈ 74.4 net.
PHIN2.1
· Avg net diff8.2
· σ ±5.0
· Pace: ⚖️ Even Pace
Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
6.4
W1
9.8
Playoff 1
-0.4
W17
9.2
W14
6.4
W12
8.9
W9
3.0
W7
12.3
W4 major
Hole Intel
F9 40.1 · B9 40.2 · swing +0.09
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)
Rain:
• 0.0 strokes
Wind:
▲ +2.5 strokes
Net Sun adj: +0.7 strokes
Social
🧘monk🏃fit😇Sat: tame
🍻 Drinks/18: ●○○○○○○ 1.0
🌙Night Owl · 12pm🍺Beer Talk 2.4×
💬 GroupMe: 65 msgs · 1 imgs
Pressure
Past playoff rounds: 1 · Z +0.53
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬1.0 (+0.0)
0baseline 18
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
79
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
79
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip
Wildcard sober monk in a field of degenerates. The model's nervous — in a clean way. Wind shaky AND lowest stroke allotment in the field both fight him. Bayhill rookie gauntlet hasn't found his weakness yet — only 8 rounds, every hole still in scouting report stage. 17% advance · 1% Cup. Quiet path to a top-5; loud path to nothing. 65 messages all year. 'Ghost / Lurker' + 'Degen Gambler' combo — silent until the wager hits. Caps lock 3.1% (highest in the field). When The Crasher speaks, it's in CAPS and it's about money.
PHIN1.0
· Avg net diff7.6
· σ ±6.5
· Pace: ⚖️ Even Pace
Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
9.8
W3
1.3
W2
8.9
W1
2.1
Playoff Finals
3.0
Playoff 1
8.9
W16
0.6
W14
0.4
W12
Hole Intel
F9 39.1 · B9 39.0 · swing −0.08
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)
Rain:
• 0.0 strokes
Wind:
▲ +1.6 strokes
Net Sun adj: +0.6 strokes
Social
🥃animal🏃fit👰Sat: bachelor
🍻 Drinks/18: ●●●●●●○ 5.5
🌙Night Owl · 12pm🍺Beer Talk 3.8×🗣️Shouter
💬 GroupMe: 441 msgs · 16 imgs
· top 🤣 ×10
Pressure
Past playoff rounds: 7 · Z -0.27
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬5.5 (+0.0)
0baseline 5.58
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
80
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
76
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip
Bachelor party + 5.5 beers per round + animal lifestyle. Notorious G is a science experiment in 'what if youth didn't save you?' Lowest baseline gross in the field — locked behind a Saturday night he can't take back. Hardest holes only +0.8-0.9 — pure talent on display, just give him a body that wasn't up til 4am. 17% advance · 4% Cup. The talent's there. The Saturday wasn't. Beer rate 3.8 — highest mention rate in the field. SHOUTER tier. Caps lock 1.4%. Notorious G types like he golfs: hard, fast, mostly online at 3 AM.
PHIN7.6
· Avg net diff6.4
· σ ±4.7
· Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)
Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
13.2
W3
10.6
Playoff 1
9.8
W16
5.5
W12
14.9
W9
12.3
W8
10.6
W7
7.2
W6
Hole Intel
F9 41.4 · B9 42.0 · swing +0.58
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)
Rain:
• 0.0 strokes
Wind:
▲ +1.2 strokes
Net Sun adj: +0.5 strokes
Social
🥃animal💪athlete👰Sat: bachelor
🍻 Drinks/18: ●●●○○○○ 3.0
🌙Night Owl · 12am🍺Beer Talk 3.6×🗣️Shouter
💬 GroupMe: 296 msgs · 39 imgs
· top 🏼 ×27
Pressure
Past playoff rounds: 4 · Z +0.05
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬3.0 (+0.0)
0baseline 38
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
77
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
75
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip
Athlete tier. Bachelor party. The body knows what the math says: cardio is great when you're not sleeping in your tux. Cinco's gym bag has more PEDs than gym clothes today. Triple threat — opens #1 (+1.1), mid-round #11 (+1.4), closes #18 (+1.3). 3.8 strokes of structural damage every round. 24% advance · 5% Cup. Best-conditioned hangover in the field. SEVEN archetypes including 'SHOUTER' + 'Trash Talker' + 'Party Guy'. Peaks at midnight. Cinco's GroupMe footprint is louder than his actual game. The receipts are extensive.
PHIN10.4
· Avg net diff3.6
· σ ±5.4
· Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)
Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
11.5
W1
17.4
Playoff 1
14.9
W16
10.6
W15
11.0
W14
11.5
W12
8.1
W11
14.9
W10
Hole Intel
F9 42.4 · B9 44.1 · swing +1.70
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)
Rain:
▼ −1.8 strokes
Wind:
• 0.0 strokes
Net Sun adj: −1.3 strokes
Social
🍻party🏃fit💍Sat: wedding
🍻 Drinks/18: ●●●●●○○ 4.5
🌙Night Owl · 4pm🍺Beer Talk 2.2×
💬 GroupMe: 140 msgs · 14 imgs
· top 👍 ×9
Pressure
Past playoff rounds: 3 · Z +0.32
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬4.5 (+0.0)
0baseline 4.58
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
74
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
74
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip
Wedding Saturday plus 4.5 in-round means JB has been intoxicated longer than this paragraph. Loves rain, hates Sunday mornings. The 'fit' tier is doing heroic work. Hole #3 is his personal Vietnam — +1.6 strokes a round, no obvious cause, just trauma. 53% advance · 14% Cup. Speech writing in lieu of a swing thought. 140 messages, mostly thumbs-up 👍 on someone else's post. Low chatter, high tab. JB lets the 4.5 in-round beers do the talking.
PHIN8.6
· Avg net diff4.2
· σ ±4.1
· Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)
Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
13.2
W3
7.2
W2
12.3
W1
13.2
Playoff Finals
9.8
Playoff 1
12.3
W15
10.1
W14
11.5
W13
Hole Intel
F9 42.0 · B9 43.0 · swing +0.98
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)
Rain:
▲ +1.0 strokes
Wind:
▲ +1.9 strokes
Net Sun adj: +1.3 strokes
Social
🍻party👍average🍻Sat: rough night
🍻 Drinks/18: ●●●●●●○ 6.0
🌙Night Owl · 1pm🍺Beer Talk 2.9×
💬 GroupMe: 73 msgs · 1 imgs
· top 👍 ×3
Pressure
Past playoff rounds: 2 · Z +0.13
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬6.0 (+0.0)
0baseline 68
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
79
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
80
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip
Six beers per round on a NORMAL Sunday. Add Saturday's hangover and that's just Drunk Math now. Half MacGyver, half tequila — today the tequila wins. Final stretch is the Tequila Trail: #15, #17, #18 cost him 3.2 strokes a round — that's beer math. 15% advance · 1% Cup. Rookie who came for the jokes, stayed for the bourbon. 73 messages ALL YEAR. 'Ghost / Lurker' archetype confirmed. Says less in chat than he drinks per round. The math doesn't math, El Martini.
PHIN11.9
· Avg net diff4.0
· σ ±6.4
· Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)
Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
20.0
W3
19.1
W2
23.4
W1
22.5
Playoff 1
14.0
W16
15.7
W15
18.7
W14
11.5
W13
Hole Intel
F9 44.5 · B9 45.1 · swing +0.55
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)
Rain:
▲ +2.8 strokes
Wind:
▼ −2.9 strokes
Net Sun adj: +1.8 strokes
Social
🍻party👍average🍻Sat: rough night
🍻 Drinks/18: ●●●●○○○ 4.0
🌙Night Owl · 11pm🍺Beer Talk 3.1×
💬 GroupMe: 622 msgs · 96 imgs
· top 🫶 ×1
Pressure
Past playoff rounds: 5 · Z +0.12
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬4.0 (+0.0)
0baseline 48
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
79
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
79
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip
GOGO juice: hates rain, loves wind. Sunday gives him both — net result: confusion in golf shoes. Veteran legs, rough Saturday, average shape. Bookend collapses #1 (+1.4) and #18 (+1.5) — opens AND closes in flames. The middle's fine. 25% advance · 3% Cup. Doesn't matter — he's having more fun than you anyway. 'Jokester' + 'Party Guy' + 'Exclaimer' archetypes. Posts at 11 PM with three exclamation points minimum. GOGO's chat persona is the same as his golf game: confident, loud, occasionally backwards.
Bachelor party Saturday, mud god Sunday — some men plan, some men play, Hudge Bear plays hungover and wins anyway. Model loves the rain coef and ignores the bender. Opens with disaster: #1 and #2 cost him ~2.3 strokes before the coffee kicks. After that he's fine. 61% advance · 23% Cup. Bachelor regret loses to rain love today. Top emoji 😂 — laughs at his own jokes the most. 1,027 messages, 144 images. Documents the bachelor party in real-time. Receipts forever.
PHIN4.5
· Avg net diff5.5
· σ ±3.4
· Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)
Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
8.9
W2
10.6
W1
8.1
Playoff Finals
4.7
Playoff 1
7.2
W16
3.0
W13
5.5
W12
10.6
W10
Hole Intel
F9 38.4 · B9 40.5 · swing +2.12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)
Rain:
• 0.0 strokes
Wind:
▲ +1.3 strokes
Net Sun adj: +0.3 strokes
Social
🍵tame🏃fit🍺Sat: normal
🍻 Drinks/18: ●●●○○○○ 3.0
🌙Night Owl · 1pm🗣️Shouter
💬 GroupMe: 708 msgs · 107 imgs
· top 🚨 ×6
Pressure
Past playoff rounds: 11 · Z -1.28
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬3.0 (+0.0)
0baseline 38
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
73
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
71
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip
Sober adult in a frat house. Drinks two beers, calls it a Tuesday. Ex-college tennis closer — the model finally believes him about the back nine. Hardest holes top out at +0.9 (#11). He doesn't HAVE bad holes, just reluctant pars. 65% to advance is basically a guarantee. 25% Cup because the tortoise wins boring. 0.2 beer rate — basement dweller of the field. Top emoji 🚨 because he's the responsible adult. SHOUTER archetype is the only loud thing about him.
PHIN14.8
· Avg net diff3.5
· σ ±3.6
· Pace: ⚖️ Even Pace
Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
20.0
W3
17.4
W2
14.9
W1
18.3
Playoff Finals
19.1
Playoff 1
15.7
W16
14.9
W15
19.6
W14
Hole Intel
F9 45.9 · B9 45.7 · swing −0.23
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)
Rain:
▼ −2.5 strokes
Wind:
• 0.0 strokes
Net Sun adj: −2.0 strokes
Social
🥃animal🏃fit💍Sat: wedding
🍻 Drinks/18: ●●●●●○○ 4.5
🌙Night Owl · 11pm
💬 GroupMe: 3,892 msgs · 615 imgs
· top ☘ ×70
Pressure
Past playoff rounds: 8 · Z +0.21
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬4.5 (+0.0)
0baseline 4.58
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
69
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
74
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip
Wedding Saturday — cake, chaos, and a slow walk to the practice green that never happened. The +4 bonus and rain-love combo are his only friends today. Hilldoggie posts +1.8 EACH on #6 and #18 every round — his GPS tracks the meltdown locations. Hilldoggie's strategy: pretend the dance floor was 18 holes. 92% advance · 19% Cup. 3,892 messages. 615 images. Single-handedly inflates GroupMe's storage budget. Peak hour: 11 PM. Hilldoggie writes more chat content than he hits fairways.
PHIN11.0
· Avg net diff4.8
· σ ±5.2
· Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)
Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
19.1
W2
13.2
W1
20.8
Playoff 1
17.4
W16
13.2
W15
11.8
W14
11.5
W13
20.8
W12
Hole Intel
F9 43.2 · B9 44.9 · swing +1.71
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)
Rain:
▲ +2.2 strokes
Wind:
▲ +3.5 strokes
Net Sun adj: +2.4 strokes
Social
🥃animal👍average🍻Sat: rough night
🍻 Drinks/18: ●●●●●○○ 4.5
🌙Night Owl · 1am🍺Beer Talk 3.2×
💬 GroupMe: 1,522 msgs · 34 imgs
· top ❄ ×4
Pressure
Past playoff rounds: 5 · Z +3.11
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬4.5 (+0.0)
0baseline 4.58
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
75
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
85
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip
Closes bars better than rounds — five free strokes from Addendum, five extras from the bartender. Historical playoff Z says he chokes when the lights flick on. Rain shaky. Wind shaky. Pretty much shaky once Sunday morning happens. Bookend disaster on #15 (+1.3) and #18 (+1.3) — closes a Saturday tab better than a back nine. 41% advance · 1% Cup. Animal lifestyle, average results. Posts peak at 1 AM. 'Salty Vocabulary' archetype. Top emoji ❄ — even his texts are cold. 1,522 messages, every one of them after the bartender said last call.
Veteran on a stroke-welfare program — without Addendum 4 he's playing his age, in the wrong direction. Saturday left fingerprints, Sunday's lifeline is +8 strokes and a prayer. Hole #6 alone has eaten 1.5 strokes a round for years — it's basically his retirement plan. 91% to advance, 4% to lift. The bonus owns R1, the body owns R2. GroupMe receipts: 980 messages, 78 images, top emoji 🍺 used 77 times. The chat got the 🍺 message, Buck. We all got it.
