#11 · Haynes the Crasher (💪 Prime (46-55)) · G1 08:20
🎲 LIVE LONG SHOT
Cup 30/1 ($62.00) · Adv 9/2 ($11.00)
Adv 16.9% · Cup 1.3% · Top-3 7.0%
R1 net 7.91 strokes · R2 net 7.71 ± 5.6
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +8.17 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | −0.36 |
| Party tier baseline | −0.10 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | −0.10 |
| Drinks during round | +0.07 |
| athletic_r1_boost | −0.70 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | +0.20 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | +0.24 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | +0.49 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +7.91 |
| R1 stroke bonus | 0.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +7.91 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -3.09 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +8.17 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | −0.36 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | +0.80 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | +0.20 |
| Athletic R2 boost | −1.50 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | 0.00 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +0.13 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | −0.05 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | +0.33 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +7.71 |
R2 σ ±5.6 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +4.72 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +0.97 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.04 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +1.05 |
| R1 σ | +5.00 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.12 |
| R2 σ | +5.60 |
±5.6 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net 2.1 to 13.3.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Playoff 1 | 9.8 | +0.85 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
Wildcard sober monk in a field of degenerates. The model's nervous — in a clean way. Wind shaky AND lowest stroke allotment in the field both fight him. Bayhill rookie gauntlet hasn't found his weakness yet — only 8 rounds, every hole still in scouting report stage. 17% advance · 1% Cup. Quiet path to a top-5; loud path to nothing. 65 messages all year. 'Ghost / Lurker' + 'Degen Gambler' combo — silent until the wager hits. Caps lock 3.1% (highest in the field). When The Crasher speaks, it's in CAPS and it's about money.