#10 · Notorious G (🧒 Young (≤45)) · G1 08:20
🎲 LIVE LONG SHOT
Cup 25/1 ($52.00) · Adv 9/2 ($11.00)
Adv 16.8% · Cup 3.6% · Top-3 9.7%
R1 net 9.34 strokes · R2 net 4.62 ± 7.9
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +7.57 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | +0.00 |
| Party tier baseline | +0.60 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | +0.70 |
| Drinks during round | +0.41 |
| athletic_r1_boost | −0.70 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | +0.20 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | +0.24 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | +0.32 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +9.34 |
| R1 stroke bonus | 0.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +9.34 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -1.66 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +7.57 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | +0.00 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | −0.40 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | −2.50 |
| Athletic R2 boost | −1.50 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | +0.25 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +0.69 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | +0.30 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | +0.21 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +4.62 |
R2 σ ±7.9 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +4.16 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +1.22 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.22 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +1.05 |
| R1 σ | +6.50 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.21 |
| R2 σ | +7.86 |
±7.9 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net -3.2 to 12.5.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Playoff Finals | 2.1 | -0.78 |
| 2026 | Playoff 1 | 3.0 | -0.55 |
| 2025 | Playoff Finals | 1.3 | -0.99 |
| 2025 | Playoff 1 | 4.7 | -0.11 |
| 2024 | Playoff 1 | 8.1 | +0.77 |
| 2023 | Playoff 1 | 7.2 | +0.54 |
| 2021 | Playoff 1 | 6.4 | +0.33 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
Bachelor party + 5.5 beers per round + animal lifestyle. Notorious G is a science experiment in 'what if youth didn't save you?' Lowest baseline gross in the field — locked behind a Saturday night he can't take back. Hardest holes only +0.8-0.9 — pure talent on display, just give him a body that wasn't up til 4am. 17% advance · 4% Cup. The talent's there. The Saturday wasn't. Beer rate 3.8 — highest mention rate in the field. SHOUTER tier. Caps lock 1.4%. Notorious G types like he golfs: hard, fast, mostly online at 3 AM.