#4 · TD-Tap that ass Tommy (🧒 Young (≤45)) · G3 08:40
🏆 CUP CONTENDER
Cup 3/1 ($8.00) · Adv 2/5 ($2.80)
Adv 64.9% · Cup 25.4% · Top-3 58.4%
R1 net 2.01 strokes · R2 net 0.16 ± 3.9
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +5.51 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | +0.02 |
| Party tier baseline | 0.00 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | 0.00 |
| Drinks during round | +0.23 |
| athletic_r1_boost | −0.70 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | −0.30 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | 0.00 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | +0.26 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +5.01 |
| R1 stroke bonus | −3.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +2.01 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -8.99 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +5.51 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | +0.02 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | −1.92 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | −2.50 |
| Athletic R2 boost | −1.50 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | 0.00 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +0.38 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | 0.00 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | +0.17 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +0.16 |
R2 σ ±3.9 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +3.29 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +1.00 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.12 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +0.92 |
| R1 σ | +3.39 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.16 |
| R2 σ | +3.93 |
±3.9 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net -3.8 to 4.1.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Playoff Finals | 8.1 | +0.15 |
| 2026 | Playoff 1 | 4.7 | -0.76 |
| 2025 | Wildcard | 7.2 | -0.09 |
| 2024 | Playoff Finals | 2.1 | -1.46 |
| 2024 | Playoff 1 | 1.3 | -1.67 |
| 2023 | Playoff Finals | 2.1 | -1.46 |
| 2023 | Playoff 1 | 7.2 | -0.09 |
| 2022 | Playoff Finals | 9.8 | +0.61 |
| 2022 | Playoff 1 | 9.8 | +0.61 |
| 2021 | Playoff Finals | 7.2 | -0.09 |
| 2021 | Playoff 1 | 3.0 | -1.22 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
Sober adult in a frat house. Drinks two beers, calls it a Tuesday. Ex-college tennis closer — the model finally believes him about the back nine. Hardest holes top out at +0.9 (#11). He doesn't HAVE bad holes, just reluctant pars. 65% to advance is basically a guarantee. 25% Cup because the tortoise wins boring. 0.2 beer rate — basement dweller of the field. Top emoji 🚨 because he's the responsible adult. SHOUTER archetype is the only loud thing about him.