#8 · JB (💪 Prime (46-55)) · G2 08:30
⚖️ BUBBLE
Cup 6/1 ($14.00) · Adv 3/5 ($3.20)
Adv 53.3% · Cup 14.0% · Top-3 36.7%
R1 net 2.86 strokes · R2 net 2.82 ± 6.4
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +3.60 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | +0.12 |
| Party tier baseline | +0.25 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | +0.55 |
| Drinks during round | +0.34 |
| athletic_r1_boost | −0.70 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | 0.00 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | +0.12 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | −1.42 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +2.86 |
| R1 stroke bonus | 0.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +2.86 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -8.14 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +3.60 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | +0.12 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | +0.49 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | +0.20 |
| Athletic R2 boost | −1.50 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | +0.17 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +0.56 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | +0.13 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | −0.94 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +2.82 |
R2 σ ±6.4 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +3.96 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +1.15 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.18 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +1.00 |
| R1 σ | +5.37 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.19 |
| R2 σ | +6.39 |
±6.4 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net -3.6 to 9.2.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Playoff 1 | 17.4 | +1.13 |
| 2023 | Playoff Finals | 16.6 | +0.93 |
| 2023 | Playoff 1 | 10.6 | -0.58 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
Wedding Saturday plus 4.5 in-round means JB has been intoxicated longer than this paragraph. Loves rain, hates Sunday mornings. The 'fit' tier is doing heroic work. Hole #3 is his personal Vietnam — +1.6 strokes a round, no obvious cause, just trauma. 53% advance · 14% Cup. Speech writing in lieu of a swing thought. 140 messages, mostly thumbs-up 👍 on someone else's post. Low chatter, high tab. JB lets the 4.5 in-round beers do the talking.