#2 · The Turk (💪 Prime (46-55)) · G3 08:40
⚖️ BUBBLE
Cup 30/1 ($62.00) · Adv 1/1 ($4.00)
Adv 44.2% · Cup 0.6% · Top-3 6.3%
R1 net 4.26 strokes · R2 net 13.06 ± 6.1
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +4.74 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | −0.14 |
| Party tier baseline | +1.20 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | +0.66 |
| Drinks during round | +0.68 |
| athletic_r1_boost | 0.00 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | −0.30 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | 0.00 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | +2.42 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +9.26 |
| R1 stroke bonus | −5.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +4.26 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -6.74 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +4.74 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | −0.14 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | +4.21 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | +0.70 |
| Athletic R2 boost | 0.00 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | +0.20 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +1.13 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | +0.60 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | +1.61 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +13.06 |
R2 σ ±6.1 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +4.37 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +1.08 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.18 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +0.92 |
| R1 σ | +5.13 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.19 |
| R2 σ | +6.10 |
±6.1 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net 7.0 to 19.2.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Playoff 1 | 23.4 | +2.25 |
| 2024 | Wildcard | 20.0 | +1.42 |
| 2022 | Wildcard | 13.2 | -0.24 |
| 2021 | Playoff 1 | 17.4 | +0.78 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
Closes bars better than rounds — five free strokes from Addendum, five extras from the bartender. Historical playoff Z says he chokes when the lights flick on. Rain shaky. Wind shaky. Pretty much shaky once Sunday morning happens. Bookend disaster on #15 (+1.3) and #18 (+1.3) — closes a Saturday tab better than a back nine. 44% advance · 1% Cup. Animal lifestyle, average results. Posts peak at 1 AM. 'Salty Vocabulary' archetype. Top emoji ❄ — even his texts are cold. 1,522 messages, every one of them after the bartender said last call.