#6 · GOGO (👴 Veteran (56+)) · G2 08:30
🎲 LIVE LONG SHOT
Cup 30/1 ($62.00) · Adv 5/2 ($7.00)
Adv 24.5% · Cup 3.0% · Top-3 10.3%
R1 net 7.50 strokes · R2 net 7.88 ± 7.6
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +4.01 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | −0.05 |
| Party tier baseline | +0.50 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | +0.69 |
| Drinks during round | +0.60 |
| athletic_r1_boost | 0.00 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | 0.00 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | +0.12 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | +1.63 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +7.50 |
| R1 stroke bonus | 0.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +7.50 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -3.50 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +4.01 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | −0.05 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | +0.18 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | +1.20 |
| Athletic R2 boost | 0.00 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | +0.20 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +1.00 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | +0.25 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | +1.09 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +7.88 |
R2 σ ±7.6 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +5.12 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +1.08 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.16 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +1.00 |
| R1 σ | +6.41 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.18 |
| R2 σ | +7.57 |
±7.6 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net 0.3 to 15.4.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Playoff 1 | 22.5 | +1.87 |
| 2025 | Playoff Finals | 20.0 | +1.27 |
| 2025 | Playoff 1 | 14.0 | -0.17 |
| 2022 | Playoff Finals | 8.1 | -1.59 |
| 2022 | Playoff 1 | 8.9 | -1.40 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
GOGO juice: hates rain, loves wind. Sunday gives him both — net result: confusion in golf shoes. Veteran legs, rough Saturday, average shape. Bookend collapses #1 (+1.4) and #18 (+1.5) — opens AND closes in flames. The middle's fine. 25% advance · 3% Cup. Doesn't matter — he's having more fun than you anyway. 'Jokester' + 'Party Guy' + 'Exclaimer' archetypes. Posts at 11 PM with three exclamation points minimum. GOGO's chat persona is the same as his golf game: confident, loud, occasionally backwards.