#9 · Cinco (💪 Prime (46-55)) · G1 08:20
🎲 LIVE LONG SHOT
Cup 20/1 ($42.00) · Adv 5/2 ($7.00)
Adv 26.4% · Cup 4.9% · Top-3 17.3%
R1 net 6.43 strokes · R2 net 3.65 ± 5.5
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +6.46 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | 0.00 |
| Party tier baseline | +0.30 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | +0.39 |
| Drinks during round | +0.11 |
| athletic_r1_boost | −1.50 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | +0.20 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | +0.24 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | +0.24 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +6.43 |
| R1 stroke bonus | 0.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +6.43 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -4.57 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +6.46 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | 0.00 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | +0.18 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | −0.10 |
| Athletic R2 boost | −3.50 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | +0.13 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +0.19 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | +0.15 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | +0.16 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +3.65 |
R2 σ ±5.5 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +3.32 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +1.22 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.12 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +1.05 |
| R1 σ | +4.76 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.16 |
| R2 σ | +5.52 |
±5.5 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net -1.9 to 9.2.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Playoff 1 | 14.0 | +0.59 |
| 2023 | Wildcard | 10.6 | -0.24 |
| 2022 | Wildcard | 12.3 | +0.18 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
Athlete tier. Bachelor party. The body knows what the math says: cardio is great when you're not sleeping in your tux. Cinco's gym bag has more PEDs than gym clothes today. Triple threat — opens #1 (+1.1), mid-round #11 (+1.4), closes #18 (+1.3). 3.8 strokes of structural damage every round. 26% advance · 5% Cup. Best-conditioned hangover in the field. SEVEN archetypes including 'SHOUTER' + 'Trash Talker' + 'Party Guy'. Peaks at midnight. Cinco's GroupMe footprint is louder than his actual game. The receipts are extensive.