#3 · Hilldoggie (👴 Veteran (56+)) · G3 08:40
🔒 R1 LOCK
Cup 4/1 ($10.00) · Adv 1/12 ($2.17)
Adv 91.7% · Cup 18.8% · Top-3 69.6%
R1 net -1.92 strokes · R2 net 2.88 ± 4.3
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +3.47 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | +0.06 |
| Party tier baseline | +0.60 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | +0.57 |
| Drinks during round | +0.34 |
| athletic_r1_boost | −0.70 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | −0.30 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | 0.00 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | −1.97 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +2.08 |
| R1 stroke bonus | −4.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | −1.92 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -12.92 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +3.47 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | +0.06 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | +0.32 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | +0.80 |
| Athletic R2 boost | −1.50 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | +0.17 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +0.56 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | +0.30 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | −1.31 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +2.88 |
R2 σ ±4.3 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +2.93 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +1.15 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.18 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +0.92 |
| R1 σ | +3.65 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.19 |
| R2 σ | +4.35 |
±4.3 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net -1.5 to 7.2.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Playoff Finals | 18.3 | +0.23 |
| 2026 | Playoff 1 | 19.1 | +0.41 |
| 2025 | Playoff 1 | 21.7 | +1.02 |
| 2024 | Playoff Finals | 18.3 | +0.23 |
| 2024 | Playoff 1 | 17.4 | +0.01 |
| 2023 | Playoff 1 | 20.8 | +0.81 |
| 2023 | Wildcard | 15.7 | -0.38 |
| 2022 | Wildcard | 18.3 | +0.23 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
Wedding Saturday — cake, chaos, and a slow walk to the practice green that never happened. The +4 bonus and rain-love combo are his only friends today. Hilldoggie posts +1.8 EACH on #6 and #18 every round — his GPS tracks the meltdown locations. Hilldoggie's strategy: pretend the dance floor was 18 holes. 92% advance · 19% Cup. 3,892 messages. 615 images. Single-handedly inflates GroupMe's storage budget. Peak hour: 11 PM. Hilldoggie writes more chat content than he hits fairways.