#7 · El Martini (👴 Veteran (56+)) · G2 08:30
🎲 LIVE LONG SHOT
Cup 30/1 ($62.00) · Adv 5/1 ($12.00)
Adv 14.6% · Cup 0.6% · Top-3 4.8%
R1 net 7.59 strokes · R2 net 9.02 ± 5.0
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +4.16 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | +0.07 |
| Party tier baseline | +0.50 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | +0.69 |
| Drinks during round | +0.90 |
| athletic_r1_boost | 0.00 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | 0.00 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | +0.12 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | +1.16 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +7.59 |
| R1 stroke bonus | 0.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +7.59 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -3.41 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +4.16 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | +0.07 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | +0.19 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | +1.20 |
| Athletic R2 boost | 0.00 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | +0.20 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +2.17 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | +0.25 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | +0.77 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +9.02 |
R2 σ ±5.0 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +3.05 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +1.08 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.24 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +1.00 |
| R1 σ | +4.08 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.22 |
| R2 σ | +4.98 |
±5.0 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net 4.0 to 14.0.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Playoff Finals | 13.2 | +0.69 |
| 2026 | Playoff 1 | 9.8 | -0.53 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
Six beers per round on a NORMAL Sunday. Add Saturday's hangover and that's just Drunk Math now. Half MacGyver, half tequila — today the tequila wins. Final stretch is the Tequila Trail: #15, #17, #18 cost him 3.2 strokes a round — that's beer math. 15% advance · 1% Cup. Rookie who came for the jokes, stayed for the bourbon. 73 messages ALL YEAR. 'Ghost / Lurker' archetype confirmed. Says less in chat than he drinks per round. The math doesn't math, El Martini.