Phedex Portal

Playoff — 2026 Race Card

Monte Carlo over net-score model w/ form, weather, age cohort, social profile, in-round drinks, clutch Z. Sourced from 50,000 simulations. All values in strokes; lower expected score = better.

Sun May 3, 2026 · Bay Hill · 36 holes single day · Post 8:20 AM

Generated 4/30/2026, 4:35:45 PM · 50,000 sims

🎙️ Headline: Model favors TD-Tap that ass Tommy for the Cup (24.9%); Hilldoggie the chalk to advance (87.7%).

Forecast

77°F · RAIN 53% (2.4") · WIND 11 mph

Humidity & heat NOT modeled this card.

Tee Groups
  • 08:20 G1: j-haynes · cambre · cardenas
  • 08:30 G2: burt · martinez · gomen · hudgens
  • 08:40 G3: dennis · hilmer · latorre · hingtgen
  • R2 FINALS · 14:00

Win the Cup

Pp Player M/L $2 pays
4 TD 7/2 $9.00
5 Hudge Bear 7/2 $9.00
3 Hilldoggie 7/2 $9.00
8 JB 8/1 $18.00
1 Buck 15/1 $32.00
9 Cinco 20/1 $42.00
10 Notorious G 20/1 $42.00
6 GOGO 25/1 $52.00
11 Haynes the Crasher 30/1 $62.00
2 The Turk 30/1 $62.00
7 Martini 30/1 $62.00

Advance to Finals

Pp Player M/L $2 pays
1 Buck 1/9 $2.22
3 Hilldoggie 1/7 $2.29
4 TD 1/3 $2.67
5 Hudge Bear 2/5 $2.80
8 JB 4/5 $3.60
2 The Turk 1/1 $4.00
9 Cinco 5/2 $7.00
6 GOGO 3/1 $8.00
10 Notorious G 3/1 $8.00
11 Haynes the Crasher 5/1 $12.00
7 Martini 6/1 $14.00

Age cohorts: 🧒 Young (≤45) · 💪 Prime (46–55) · 👴 Veteran (56+) · all stroke values in strokes · lower expected score = better

Projected New Finish

Rating 71.5 · Sorted by R1 net asc · Top 5 advance

Each row shows expected gross + R1/R2 net w/ ALL model factors baked in: Bayhill avg, regression-to-mean, recent form, PHIN trend, weather (rain/wind), age cohort, condition, party tier, Sat-night override, drinks/round, clutch Z, F9/B9 swing, tee-order, group rain bias. Top 5 R1 advance to R2; cut line ≈ 75.2 net.

Pos Sd Player PHIN HDCP +Bonus R1 Strokes Exp Gross Exp R1 Net Exp R2 Net* Adv % Cup %
1 3 Hilldoggie 14.0 16 +4 20 89.6 69.6 74.4 88% 19.9%
2 1 Buck 10.4 12 +8 20 89.7 69.7 78.3 90% 5.7%
3 5 Hudge Bear 9.2 10 +2 12 84.9 72.9 72.1 63% 24.6%
4 4 TD 4.7 5 +3 8 81.5 73.5 71.5 67% 24.9%
5 8 JB 10.1 11 — 11 86.2 75.2 74.8 49% 9.7%
─── CUT (top 5 advance) ───
6 2 The Turk 11.0 12 +5 17 92.8 75.8 84.6 44% 0.6%
7 9 Cinco 7.3 8 — 8 85.9 77.9 75.2 26% 4.9%
8 6 GOGO 11.8 13 — 13 91.9 78.9 77.3 24% 3.5%
9 10 Notorious G 2.0 2 — 2 82.0 80.0 75.8 22% 4.8%
10 7 Martini 8.3 9 — 9 89.0 80.0 81.3 13% 0.5%
11 11 Haynes the Crasher 1.3 1 — 1 81.4 80.4 79.4 14% 1.0%

#11 Haynes the Crasher

💪 Prime (46-55) · G1 08:20

🎲 LIVE LONG SHOT

WIND-SHYSOBER ASSASSIN

Cup 30/1 ($62.00) · Adv 5/1 ($12.00)

Adv 14.3% · Cup 1.0% · Top-3 5.7%

R1 net 8.88 strokes · R2 net 7.88 ± 5.8

Bayhill Form

PHIN 1.3 · Avg net diff 8.8 · σ ±5.1 · Pace: ⚖️ Even Pace

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
-0.4
W17
9.2
W14
6.4
W12
8.9
W9
3.0
W7
12.3
W4 major
3.8
W3
8.9
W1
Hole Intel

F9 40.1 · B9 40.2 · swing +0.09

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: +0.7 strokes

Social
monk fit Sat: tame
Night Owl · 12pm Beer Talk 2.4×

💬 GroupMe: 65 msgs · 1 imgs

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 0 · Z +0.00

Z +0.00 (n=0)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬1.0 (+0.0)
0baseline 18
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
80
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
79
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

Wildcard sober monk in a field of degenerates. The model's nervous — in a clean way. Wind shaky AND lowest stroke allotment in the field both fight him. Bayhill rookie gauntlet hasn't found his weakness yet — only 8 rounds, every hole still in scouting report stage. 14% advance · 1% Cup. Quiet path to a top-5; loud path to nothing. 65 messages all year. 'Ghost / Lurker' + 'Degen Gambler' combo — silent until the wager hits. Caps lock 3.1% (highest in the field). When The Crasher speaks, it's in CAPS and it's about money.

Full Breakdown →

#10 Notorious G

🧒 Young (≤45) · G1 08:20

🎲 LIVE LONG SHOT

CARNAGE WATCH

Cup 20/1 ($42.00) · Adv 3/1 ($8.00)

Adv 22.1% · Cup 4.8% · Top-3 12.9%

R1 net 8.47 strokes · R2 net 4.27 ± 8.1

Bayhill Form

PHIN 2.0 · Avg net diff 6.6 · σ ±6.7 · Pace: ⚖️ Even Pace

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
8.9
W16
0.6
W14
0.4
W12
4.7
W11
4.7
W10
7.2
W9
-3.8
W8
6.4
W7
Hole Intel

F9 39.1 · B9 39.0 · swing −0.08

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: +0.6 strokes

Social
animal fit Sat: bachelor
Night Owl · 12pm Beer Talk 3.8× Shouter

💬 GroupMe: 441 msgs · 16 imgs · top 🤣 ×10

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 5 · Z +0.08

Z +0.08 (n=5)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬5.5 (+0.0)
0baseline 5.58
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
79
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
75
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

Bachelor party + 5.5 beers per round + animal lifestyle. Notorious G is a science experiment in 'what if youth didn't save you?' Lowest baseline gross in the field — locked behind a Saturday night he can't take back. Hardest holes only +0.8-0.9 — pure talent on display, just give him a body that wasn't up til 4am. 22% advance · 5% Cup. The talent's there. The Saturday wasn't. Beer rate 3.8 — highest mention rate in the field. SHOUTER tier. Caps lock 1.4%. Notorious G types like he golfs: hard, fast, mostly online at 3 AM.

Full Breakdown →

#9 Cinco

💪 Prime (46-55) · G1 08:20

🎲 LIVE LONG SHOT

Cup 20/1 ($42.00) · Adv 5/2 ($7.00)

Adv 26.4% · Cup 4.9% · Top-3 17.3%

R1 net 6.43 strokes · R2 net 3.65 ± 5.5

Bayhill Form

PHIN 7.3 · Avg net diff 6.5 · σ ±4.8 · Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
9.8
W16
5.5
W12
14.9
W9
12.3
W8
10.6
W7
7.2
W6
9.8
W4 major
7.2
W3
Hole Intel

F9 41.4 · B9 42.0 · swing +0.58

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: +0.5 strokes

Social
animal athlete Sat: bachelor
Night Owl · 12am Beer Talk 3.6× Shouter

💬 GroupMe: 296 msgs · 39 imgs · top 🏼 ×27

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 3 · Z +0.12

Z +0.12 (n=3)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬3.0 (+0.0)
0baseline 38
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
77
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
75
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

Athlete tier. Bachelor party. The body knows what the math says: cardio is great when you're not sleeping in your tux. Cinco's gym bag has more PEDs than gym clothes today. Triple threat — opens #1 (+1.1), mid-round #11 (+1.4), closes #18 (+1.3). 3.8 strokes of structural damage every round. 26% advance · 5% Cup. Best-conditioned hangover in the field. SEVEN archetypes including 'SHOUTER' + 'Trash Talker' + 'Party Guy'. Peaks at midnight. Cinco's GroupMe footprint is louder than his actual game. The receipts are extensive.

Full Breakdown →

#8 JB

💪 Prime (46-55) · G2 08:30

⚖️ BUBBLE

Cup 8/1 ($18.00) · Adv 4/5 ($3.60)

Adv 48.7% · Cup 9.7% · Top-3 32.5%

R1 net 3.68 strokes · R2 net 3.33 ± 5.7

Bayhill Form

PHIN 10.1 · Avg net diff 4.5 · σ ±4.8 · Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
14.9
W16
10.6
W15
11.0
W14
11.5
W12
8.1
W11
14.9
W10
10.6
W8
14.9
W7
Hole Intel

F9 42.4 · B9 44.1 · swing +1.70

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: −1.3 strokes

Social
party fit Sat: wedding
Night Owl · 4pm Beer Talk 2.2×

💬 GroupMe: 140 msgs · 14 imgs · top 👍 ×9

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 2 · Z +0.11

Z +0.11 (n=2)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬4.5 (+0.0)
0baseline 4.58
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
75
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
74
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

Wedding Saturday plus 4.5 in-round means JB has been intoxicated longer than this paragraph. Loves rain, hates Sunday mornings. The 'fit' tier is doing heroic work. Hole #3 is his personal Vietnam — +1.6 strokes a round, no obvious cause, just trauma. 49% advance · 10% Cup. Speech writing in lieu of a swing thought. 140 messages, mostly thumbs-up 👍 on someone else's post. Low chatter, high tab. JB lets the 4.5 in-round beers do the talking.

Full Breakdown →

#7 Martini

👴 Veteran (56+) · G2 08:30

🎲 LIVE LONG SHOT

Cup 30/1 ($62.00) · Adv 6/1 ($14.00)

Adv 13.0% · Cup 0.5% · Top-3 3.8%

R1 net 8.54 strokes · R2 net 9.77 ± 5.5

Bayhill Form

PHIN 8.3 · Avg net diff 5.1 · σ ±4.5 · Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
12.3
W15
10.1
W14
11.5
W13
9.8
W12
14.0
W11
8.9
W10
17.4
W9
12.3
W8
Hole Intel

F9 42.0 · B9 43.0 · swing +0.98

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: +1.3 strokes

Social
party average Sat: rough night
Night Owl · 1pm Beer Talk 2.9×

💬 GroupMe: 73 msgs · 1 imgs · top 👍 ×3

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 0 · Z +0.00

Z +0.00 (n=0)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬6.0 (+0.0)
0baseline 68
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
80
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
81
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

Six beers per round on a NORMAL Sunday. Add Saturday's hangover and that's just Drunk Math now. Half MacGyver, half tequila — today the tequila wins. Final stretch is the Tequila Trail: #15, #17, #18 cost him 3.2 strokes a round — that's beer math. 13% advance · 0% Cup. Rookie who came for the jokes, stayed for the bourbon. 73 messages ALL YEAR. 'Ghost / Lurker' archetype confirmed. Says less in chat than he drinks per round. The math doesn't math, El Martini.

Full Breakdown →

#6 GOGO

👴 Veteran (56+) · G2 08:30

🎲 LIVE LONG SHOT

MUD HATERWIND ARTIST

Cup 25/1 ($52.00) · Adv 3/1 ($8.00)

Adv 23.8% · Cup 3.5% · Top-3 12.6%

R1 net 7.36 strokes · R2 net 5.82 ± 6.7

Bayhill Form

PHIN 11.8 · Avg net diff 3.9 · σ ±5.6 · Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
14.0
W16
15.7
W15
18.7
W14
11.5
W13
20.8
W12
13.2
W11
8.1
W10
11.5
W9
Hole Intel

F9 44.5 · B9 45.1 · swing +0.55

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: +1.8 strokes

Social
party average Sat: rough night
Night Owl · 11pm Beer Talk 3.1×

💬 GroupMe: 622 msgs · 96 imgs · top 🫶 ×1

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 4 · Z -1.16

Z -1.16 (n=4)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬4.0 (+0.0)
0baseline 48
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
78
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
77
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

GOGO juice: hates rain, loves wind. Sunday gives him both — net result: confusion in golf shoes. Veteran legs, rough Saturday, average shape. Bookend collapses #1 (+1.4) and #18 (+1.5) — opens AND closes in flames. The middle's fine. 24% advance · 3% Cup. Doesn't matter — he's having more fun than you anyway. 'Jokester' + 'Party Guy' + 'Exclaimer' archetypes. Posts at 11 PM with three exclamation points minimum. GOGO's chat persona is the same as his golf game: confident, loud, occasionally backwards.

Full Breakdown →

#5 Hudge Bear

💪 Prime (46-55) · G2 08:30

🏆 CUP CONTENDER

MUD GODCLUTCH

Cup 7/2 ($9.00) · Adv 2/5 ($2.80)

Adv 63.0% · Cup 24.6% · Top-3 47.5%

R1 net 1.41 strokes · R2 net 0.59 ± 7.9

Bayhill Form

PHIN 9.2 · Avg net diff 4.5 · σ ±6.7 · Pace: 🏁 Closer (B9 strength)

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
12.3
W16
9.8
W15
8.4
W14
13.2
W12
19.1
W11
10.6
W10
14.9
W9
16.6
W7
Hole Intel

F9 43.6 · B9 42.1 · swing −1.49

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: −1.7 strokes

Social
party fit Sat: bachelor
Night Owl · 3pm Beer Talk 2.3×

💬 GroupMe: 1,027 msgs · 144 imgs · top 😂 ×19

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 7 · Z -1.53

Z -1.53 (n=7)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬4.5 (+0.0)
0baseline 4.58
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
72
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
72
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

Bachelor party Saturday, mud god Sunday — some men plan, some men play, Hudge Bear plays hungover and wins anyway. Model loves the rain coef and ignores the bender. Opens with disaster: #1 and #2 cost him ~2.3 strokes before the coffee kicks. After that he's fine. 63% advance · 25% Cup. Bachelor regret loses to rain love today. Top emoji 😂 — laughs at his own jokes the most. 1,027 messages, 144 images. Documents the bachelor party in real-time. Receipts forever.

Full Breakdown →

#4 TD

🧒 Young (≤45) · G3 08:40

🏆 CUP CONTENDER

CLUTCH

Cup 7/2 ($9.00) · Adv 1/3 ($2.67)

Adv 67.0% · Cup 24.9% · Top-3 60.0%

R1 net 2.02 strokes · R2 net 0.00 ± 4.1

Bayhill Form

PHIN 4.7 · Avg net diff 5.5 · σ ±3.5 · Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
7.2
W16
3.0
W13
5.5
W12
10.6
W10
6.4
W9
10.6
W7
2.1
W6
3.0
W5
Hole Intel

F9 38.4 · B9 40.5 · swing +2.12

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: +0.3 strokes

Social
tame fit Sat: normal
Night Owl · 1pm Shouter

💬 GroupMe: 708 msgs · 107 imgs · top 🚨 ×6

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 9 · Z -1.39

Z -1.39 (n=9)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬3.0 (+0.0)
0baseline 38
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
73
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
71
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

Sober adult in a frat house. Drinks two beers, calls it a Tuesday. Ex-college tennis closer — the model finally believes him about the back nine. Hardest holes top out at +0.9 (#11). He doesn't HAVE bad holes, just reluctant pars. 67% to advance is basically a guarantee. 25% Cup because the tortoise wins boring. 0.2 beer rate — basement dweller of the field. Top emoji 🚨 because he's the responsible adult. SHOUTER archetype is the only loud thing about him.

Full Breakdown →

#3 Hilldoggie

👴 Veteran (56+) · G3 08:40

🔒 R1 LOCK

MUD GOD

Cup 7/2 ($9.00) · Adv 1/7 ($2.29)

Adv 87.7% · Cup 19.9% · Top-3 62.6%

R1 net -1.93 strokes · R2 net 2.86 ± 5.7

Bayhill Form

PHIN 14.0 · Avg net diff 3.5 · σ ±4.8 · Pace: ⚖️ Even Pace

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
15.7
W16
14.9
W15
19.6
W14
20.8
W13
14.9
W12
22.5
W11
20.0
W10
19.1
W9
Hole Intel

F9 45.9 · B9 45.7 · swing −0.23

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: −2.0 strokes

Social
animal fit Sat: wedding
Night Owl · 11pm

💬 GroupMe: 3,892 msgs · 615 imgs · top ☘ ×70

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 6 · Z +0.21

Z +0.21 (n=6)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬4.5 (+0.0)
0baseline 4.58
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
69
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
74
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

Wedding Saturday — cake, chaos, and a slow walk to the practice green that never happened. The +4 bonus and rain-love combo are his only friends today. Hilldoggie posts +1.8 EACH on #6 and #18 every round — his GPS tracks the meltdown locations. Hilldoggie's strategy: pretend the dance floor was 18 holes. 88% advance · 20% Cup. 3,892 messages. 615 images. Single-handedly inflates GroupMe's storage budget. Peak hour: 11 PM. Hilldoggie writes more chat content than he hits fairways.

Full Breakdown →

#2 The Turk

💪 Prime (46-55) · G3 08:40

⚖️ BUBBLE

MUD HATERWIND-SHYCHOKE WATCH

Cup 30/1 ($62.00) · Adv 1/1 ($4.00)

Adv 44.2% · Cup 0.6% · Top-3 6.3%

R1 net 4.26 strokes · R2 net 13.06 ± 6.1

Bayhill Form

PHIN 11.0 · Avg net diff 4.7 · σ ±5.1 · Pace: 🚀 Fast Start (B9 fade)

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
17.4
W16
13.2
W15
11.8
W14
11.5
W13
20.8
W12
14.0
W11
9.8
W10
17.4
W8
Hole Intel

F9 43.2 · B9 44.9 · swing +1.71

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: +2.4 strokes

Social
animal average Sat: rough night
Night Owl · 1am Beer Talk 3.2×

💬 GroupMe: 1,522 msgs · 34 imgs · top ❄ ×4

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 4 · Z +2.81

Z +2.81 (n=4)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬4.5 (+0.0)
0baseline 4.58
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
75
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
84
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

Closes bars better than rounds — five free strokes from Addendum, five extras from the bartender. Historical playoff Z says he chokes when the lights flick on. Rain shaky. Wind shaky. Pretty much shaky once Sunday morning happens. Bookend disaster on #15 (+1.3) and #18 (+1.3) — closes a Saturday tab better than a back nine. 44% advance · 1% Cup. Animal lifestyle, average results. Posts peak at 1 AM. 'Salty Vocabulary' archetype. Top emoji ❄ — even his texts are cold. 1,522 messages, every one of them after the bartender said last call.

Full Breakdown →

#1 Buck

👴 Veteran (56+) · G3 08:40

🔒 R1 LOCK

LIFELINE

Cup 15/1 ($32.00) · Adv 1/9 ($2.22)

Adv 89.7% · Cup 5.7% · Top-3 38.9%

R1 net -1.80 strokes · R2 net 6.79 ± 5.0

Bayhill Form

PHIN 10.4 · Avg net diff 4.9 · σ ±4.2 · Pace: 🏁 Closer (B9 strength)

Past Performance — last 8 Bayhill rounds
12.3
W16
11.8
W14
14.0
W12
17.4
W11
11.5
W10
10.6
W9
8.9
W8
9.8
W7
Hole Intel

F9 43.5 · B9 42.7 · swing −0.75

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
← easier
harder →
Weather (Sun May 3)

Net Sun adj: 0.0 strokes

Social
party soft Sat: rough night
Night Owl · 2pm Beer Talk 3.6×

💬 GroupMe: 980 msgs · 78 imgs · top 🍺 ×77

Pressure

Past playoff rounds: 5 · Z -0.75

Z -0.75 (n=5)CLUTCHCHOKE
🎛️ What-If Slidersodds stay locked · score only
☀️🌧️💨100% (+0.0)
0% (none)100% (forecast)150%
🍸🍄🍬3.5 (+0.0)
0baseline 3.58
🥂🌙🎉+0.0
Round 1 net
69
— vs baseline
Round 2 net
78
— vs baseline
🎙️ Tip

Veteran on a stroke-welfare program — without Addendum 4 he's playing his age, in the wrong direction. Saturday left fingerprints, Sunday's lifeline is +8 strokes and a prayer. Hole #6 alone has eaten 1.5 strokes a round for years — it's basically his retirement plan. 90% to advance, 6% to lift. The bonus owns R1, the body owns R2. GroupMe receipts: 980 messages, 78 images, top emoji 🍺 used 77 times. The chat got the 🍺 message, Buck. We all got it.

Full Breakdown →
Format & Bylaws (Addendum 4 stroke table)

11 qualifiers play 36 holes single day. Top 5 R1 advance to R2 finals. Bonus strokes (R1 only): seed 1 +8, 2 +5, 3 +4, 4 +3, 5 +2.

Full handbook →