#5 · Hudge Bear (💪 Prime (46-55)) · G2 08:30
🏆 CUP CONTENDER
Cup 7/2 ($9.00) · Adv 2/5 ($2.80)
Adv 63.0% · Cup 24.6% · Top-3 47.5%
R1 net 1.41 strokes · R2 net 0.59 ± 7.9
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +4.54 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | −0.09 |
| Party tier baseline | +0.25 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | +0.77 |
| Drinks during round | +0.34 |
| athletic_r1_boost | −0.70 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | 0.00 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | +0.12 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | −1.81 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +3.41 |
| R1 stroke bonus | −2.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +1.41 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -9.59 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +4.54 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | −0.09 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | −2.29 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | +0.20 |
| Athletic R2 boost | −1.50 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | +0.25 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +0.56 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | +0.13 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | −1.21 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +0.59 |
R2 σ ±7.9 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +4.63 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +1.22 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.18 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +1.00 |
| R1 σ | +6.66 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.19 |
| R2 σ | +7.93 |
±7.9 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net -7.3 to 8.5.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wildcard | 10.6 | -0.32 |
| 2024 | Wildcard | 12.3 | +0.07 |
| 2023 | Wildcard | 8.1 | -0.91 |
| 2022 | Playoff Finals | 11.5 | -0.11 |
| 2022 | Playoff 1 | 8.1 | -0.91 |
| 2022 | Wildcard | 6.4 | -1.31 |
| 2021 | Playoff 1 | 9.8 | -0.51 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
Bachelor party Saturday, mud god Sunday — some men plan, some men play, Hudge Bear plays hungover and wins anyway. Model loves the rain coef and ignores the bender. Opens with disaster: #1 and #2 cost him ~2.3 strokes before the coffee kicks. After that he's fine. 63% advance · 25% Cup. Bachelor regret loses to rain love today. Top emoji 😂 — laughs at his own jokes the most. 1,027 messages, 144 images. Documents the bachelor party in real-time. Receipts forever.