#1 · Buck-a-licious (👴 Veteran (56+)) · G3 08:40
🔒 R1 LOCK
Cup 20/1 ($42.00) · Adv 1/12 ($2.17)
Adv 91.3% · Cup 4.4% · Top-3 37.5%
R1 net -1.79 strokes · R2 net 6.96 ± 4.3
R1 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +4.88 |
| Recent form (last 4) | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend (6-week slope) | +0.01 |
| Party tier baseline | +0.50 |
| Sat-night override (× age mult) | +0.69 |
| Drinks during round | +0.53 |
| athletic_r1_boost | −0.10 |
| Tee order (sees boards / blind) | −0.30 |
| Group rain bias (× damper) | 0.00 |
| Weather (rain + wind, × damper) | 0.00 |
| TOTAL μ R1 (pre-bonus) | +6.21 |
| R1 stroke bonus | −8.00 |
| R1 EXPECTED NET SCORE | −1.79 |
Cut line ≈ 11 strokes (5th place). Margin: -12.79 strokes (above cut).
R2 Expected Score Build (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Bayhill baseline | +4.88 |
| Recent form | 0.00 |
| PHIN trend | +0.01 |
| Clutch Z (×1.5) | −0.96 |
| F9/B9 swing (×1.5) | 0.00 |
| R2 fatigue (age × condition) | +1.80 |
| Athletic R2 boost | −0.10 |
| Sat-night R2 fatigue | +0.20 |
| Drinks R2 carry | +0.88 |
| Party R2 carry (× 0.5) | +0.25 |
| Weather (rain + wind) | 0.00 |
| R2 EXPECTED NET SCORE | +6.96 |
R2 σ ±4.3 — wider σ = bigger upside AND downside.
Expected Variance σ (strokes)
All values are STROKES added to (+) or saved from (−) the player's expected net score. Lower expected score = better. The total at the bottom is the predicted net for that round.
| Component | Strokes |
|---|---|
| Last 12 rounds std dev | +3.23 |
| × Sat-night σ mult | +1.08 |
| × Drinks σ mult | +1.14 |
| × Tee-order σ mult | +0.92 |
| R1 σ | +3.66 |
| × R2 pressure mult | +1.17 |
| R2 σ | +4.28 |
±4.3 means ~68% of sims fall within R2 net 2.7 to 11.2.
Lever Sensitivity
What if one input changed? Each row is a hypothetical override applied in isolation. Live recompute is out of scope for v1; this lists the levers we'd flip if we re-ran the model.
| Hypothetical change | Override applied |
|---|---|
| Sat-night → tame | Saturday-night → tame |
| Sat-night → rough_night | Saturday-night → rough_night |
| Sat-night → wedding | Saturday-night → wedding |
| Sat-night → bachelor | Saturday-night → bachelor |
| Drinks halved | Drinks ÷ 2 |
| Party tier → tame | Party tier → tame |
| Add injury_doubt | Saturday-night → injury_doubt |
| Strip weather | Rain coef → 0 · Wind coef → 0 |
| CURRENT STATE | — |
Historical Playoff Ledger
| Year | Round | Net diff | Z |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Playoff Finals | 13.2 | -0.34 |
| 2026 | Playoff 1 | 14.9 | +0.12 |
| 2025 | Playoff Finals | 14.0 | -0.13 |
| 2025 | Playoff 1 | 15.7 | +0.33 |
| 2023 | Playoff Finals | 13.2 | -0.34 |
| 2023 | Playoff 1 | 12.3 | -0.58 |
| 2022 | Wildcard | 12.3 | -0.58 |
Hole-by-hole heat
+/- strokes per round, color-coded.
Tip Sheet
Veteran on a stroke-welfare program — without Addendum 4 he's playing his age, in the wrong direction. Saturday left fingerprints, Sunday's lifeline is +8 strokes and a prayer. Hole #6 alone has eaten 1.5 strokes a round for years — it's basically his retirement plan. 91% to advance, 4% to lift. The bonus owns R1, the body owns R2. GroupMe receipts: 980 messages, 78 images, top emoji 🍺 used 77 times. The chat got the 🍺 message, Buck. We all got it.